Deutsche Bank: Sustainable solar market expected in 2014 2013-02-28

Buoyed by bullish demand forecasts, and increasing utilization rates and pricing, Deutsche Bank
forecasts a solar market transition from subsidized to sustainable in 2014.

 

Italy's solar market also appears to be at grid parity,says Deutsche Bank. REC 

 

The German bank has raised its 2013 global solar demand forecast to 30 GW – representing a
20% year-on-year increase – on the back of suggestions of strong demand in markets including India, the U.S., China (around 7 to 10 GW), the U.K. (around 1 to 2 GW), Germany and Italy (around 2 GW).

 

Rooftop installations are, in particular, expected to be a main focus, says Deutsche Bank. A trend for projects being planned with either "minimal/no incentives" has also been observed, despite the belief that solar policy outlooks are improving, particularly in the U.S., China and India, and "other emerging markets".

 

Looking at India, Deutsche Bank predicts that due to state and RPO programs, demand is likely to be strong, at between 1 to 2 GW. Meanwhile, it says, "grid parity has been reached in India even despite the high cost of capital of ~10-12%."

 

With system prices between €1,500 to €2,000/kW, net metering for systems below 200 kW and "advanced" plans for unsubsidized projects in the south of the country, Italy also "appears to be at grid parity". "Assuming small commercial enterprises are able to achieve 50% or more self consumption, solar is competitive with grid electricity in most parts of Italy," says Deutsche Bank.

 

With robust demand in the U.S., Deutsche Bank forecasts a residential solar market of around 1 GW and a commercial market of between 1.5 to 2 GW.

 

Meanwhile, although solar demand in Germany is said to be seasonally weak, Q2 is expected to
see an increase, specifically in the small commercial segment. Overall, however, the bank believes 2013 growth could be inhibited – around 3 to 4 GW – due to less ground-mounted systems and no summer rush.

 

Prices
Deutsche Bank states that utilization rates in China are on the increase, as are polysilicon, wafer and module prices. In particular, with an "improving" supply outlook, it predicts that polysilicon pricing will be kept under control, although prices are expected to remain below US$25/kg. This trend should see companies like Wacker Chemie and Hemlock ramp utilization rates back up.

 

In terms of crystalline silicon modules, says Deutsche Bank, Chinese tier-1 prices have been
increasing by between $0.03 and $0.05/W. Consequently, it says, Chinese module prices are over $0.60/W, while European module prices are over $0.70/W.

热门产品
  • 太阳能建筑一体化

    太阳能建筑一体化

    阳光支架- 建筑一体化是带有防水功能的几乎适合所有建筑物安装的一体化解决方案。拥有创新设计的轨道,防紫外线橡胶,橡胶卡块及挂钩,阳光支架建筑一体化系统已经成为世界上应用最广泛的建筑一体化支架安装系统。给世界范围的安装者高效及高性价比的体验

  • 单根立柱光伏支架

    单根立柱式太阳能地面支架系统

    阳程新能源有限公司研发了一系列太阳能立柱支架,安装板数根据客户需求从一块板到十块板都有标准的立柱支架产品。如果您需要安装更多的板数,请联系阳程我们将为您定制符合您工程需求的立柱支架系统。

  • 压载式平屋顶太阳能支架

    阳程阳光平屋顶压载式太阳能支架系统

    阳光支架-平屋顶压载式是款用于将太阳能板形成阵列固定在平屋顶上而不破坏屋顶的优秀的工程方案;它适用于市场上硅晶太阳能板和薄膜太阳能电池板并且无需对屋顶进行钻孔作业。

欢迎来到 Sunforson
如果您有任何问题或建议,请给我们留言,我们会尽快回复您!
   

在线联系

首页

产品

关于

联系